Ghana Market Insight 2026

OUTLOOK SUMMARY

Macroeconomy
• Ghana enters 2026 with a constructively balanced macro-outlook, supported by easing inflation, improved FX liquidity, and firmer external buffers
• Real GDP growth is expected to moderate but remain resilient at ~5.3%, driven by services expansion, agricultural normalization, and public investment
• Inflation is projected to remain contained within 6% – 10%, creating room for continued, though measured, monetary easing
• FX stability should broadly hold, underpinned by export receipts, reserves, and active liquidity management, albeit with reduced intervention intensity
• The key swing factor for the macro-outlook is fiscal discipline particularly revenue performance and expenditure control

Fixed Income Market
• The fixed income market is entering a normalization phase, transitioning from money market dominance to gradual yield curve rebalancing
• Real returns on Treasury bills are expected to compress further as rate cuts transmit through the front end
• Investor demand is likely to extend modestly into the 2 – 5-year bond segment, improving secondary market liquidity
• Yield volatility should remain contained, barring fiscal or external shocks
• Duration exposure offers asymmetric upside relative to limited downside, supporting bonds as a core fixed income portfolio anchor in 2026.

Equity Market
• The equity market outlook remains positive with expectations of a 20%±500bps expansion in the composite index to 10,500 points by year-end 2026
• Returns in 2026 are expected to shift from speculative to earnings and dividend growth driven
• Financials, ICT, and defensive consumer names remain best positioned to benefit from lower funding costs and stable FX conditions.
• Declining risk-free rates enhance the relative attractiveness of equities as competitive assets
• Intermittent corrections are likely, but broad valuations remain supportive of medium-term upside

Author: Mac-Jordan Sika Narteh
Email: [email protected]
Contact: +233 (0) 240 977335