Scancom (MTNGH) PLC Ratings Upgrade & Q1-2026 Earnings Insights
INSIGHT BRIEF
Many Promising Days Ahead – Buy
We affirm our “BUY” rating on MTN Ghana PLC (“MTNGH” or “the Group”) with an upgraded 12-month target price of GHS11.03/share, implying 69% upside potential, on the back of sustained strong revenue momentum and visible earnings quality. The Group continues to deliver robust growth, driven by accelerating data consumption and resilient Mobile Money (MoMo) performance, which together reinforce a structurally stronger and more diversified revenue base.
Investment rationale
MTNGH financial outlook remains strong, supported by sustained revenue growth, stable margins, and robust cash flow generation. The company is wellpositioned to benefit from rising data consumption and continued demand for digital financial services, which should remain key growth drivers. MTNGH is positioned for long-term financial stability and growth, reinforcing its leadership in Ghana’s telecommunications sector. Rationale includes;
- Strong catalysts underpinning growth in data usage, MTN Ghana’s key revenue driver
- Sustained demand for digital financial services reinforces MoMo’s fundamentals, supporting consistent earnings growth
- Disciplined capital expenditure allocation strengthens market leadership, enabling subscriber growth and efficient pricing to drive revenue expansion
- Consistent dividend payments position MTN Ghana as a reliable income stock, enhancing long-term shareholder value creation
Analysis of Latest Financial Results (Q1‑2026) — GHS’mn
| Metric | Q1‑2025A | Q4‑2025A | Q1‑2026A | Y/Y | Q/Q | Q1‑2026E | Variance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total revenue | 5,362 | 7,034 | 7,274 | 36% | 3% | 6,113 | 19% |
| Total cost (direct & Opex) | 2,245 | 2,507 | 2,821 | 26% | 13% | 2,567 | 10% |
| EBITDA | 3,117 | 4,534 | 4,453 | 43% | -2% | 3,547 | 26% |
| Depreciation & Amortisation | 666 | 569 | 795 | 19% | 40% | 703 | 13% |
| Operating profit | 2,451 | 3,965 | 3,658 | 49% | -8% | 2,844 | 29% |
| Pre‑tax profit | 2,430 | 3,457 | 3,569 | 47% | 3% | 2,752 | 30% |
| Tax expense | 720 | 1,110 | 1,090 | 51% | -2% | 836 | 30% |
| Profit after tax | 1,711 | 2,347 | 2,479 | 45% | 6% | 1,916 | 29% |
| EPS (GHS/share) | 0.13 | 0.18 | 0.19 | 46% | 6% | 0.15 | 29% |