Scancom PLC (MTNGH) – Earnings & Rating Report

MTN Ghana Delivers Record-Breaking Q2 2026 Results, Reinforcing Our BUY Rating

We maintain our BUY rating on Scancom PLC (MTN Ghana) and raise our 12-month target price to GHS11.44/share, implying a 63% upside potential. Our positive outlook is supported by stronger growth catalysts, sustained earnings momentum, and the Group’s increasingly diversified revenue base.

MTN Ghana delivered another record quarter in Q2 2026, driven primarily by strong growth in data services and continued resilience in Mobile Money (MoMo). These businesses remain the key pillars of the Group’s long-term growth strategy and continue to support robust profitability.

Investment Rationale

Our positive investment case for MTN Ghana is anchored on four key themes:

• Strong growth in data consumption continues to drive revenue expansion, reinforcing MTN Ghana’s position as the market leader in digital connectivity.
• Sustained demand for Mobile Money services supports earnings growth and strengthens the Group’s digital financial services franchise.
• Disciplined capital expenditure enhances network quality, subscriber growth, and pricing efficiency, helping preserve market leadership.
• Consistent dividend payments position MTN Ghana as an attractive income stock while creating long-term value for shareholders.

Q2 2026 Earnings Review

MTN Ghana reported record revenue of GHS7.72 billion in Q2 2026, representing 29% year-on-year growth and outperforming our estimates by 10%. Revenue growth was driven by strong contributions from data, MoMo, and digital services.

The strong top-line performance translated into higher profitability. EBITDA increased by 37% year-on-year to GHS4.81 billion, while operating profit rose 44% to GHS4.02 billion. Profit after tax reached GHS2.66 billion, up 38% year-on-year, with EPS increasing to GHS0.20 per share.

Notably, cost growth remained well below revenue growth, with total operating costs rising by just 18% year-on-year, supporting margin expansion and earnings quality.

Data and MoMo Remain the Growth Engines

Data revenue remained the largest contributor to growth, rising 43% year-on-year to GHS4.50 billion and accounting for nearly 60% of total revenue. The performance reflects growing demand for data services, supported by expanding smartphone penetration and increased digital adoption.

Mobile Money revenue increased by 19% year-on-year to GHS1.78 billion, demonstrating continued resilience despite the segment’s already sizeable contribution to earnings. The growth underscores the strength of MTN Ghana’s fintech ecosystem and the increasing role of digital financial services in driving profitability.

Meanwhile, digital and other revenue streams grew by 34% year-on-year to GHS426 million, further diversifying the Group’s income profile.

Subscriber Growth and Rising ARPU Support Outlook

MTN Ghana’s customer base continued to expand across key segments. Mobile subscribers increased by 9% year-on-year to 33 million, while active data subscribers grew by 17% to 21 million. Active MoMo users also rose to 18 million, reinforcing the network effects underpinning the platform.

Importantly, revenue growth continues to be supported by improving monetisation. Overall service ARPU increased by 19% year-on-year to GHS236, while data ARPU rose 22% to GHS211 and MoMo ARPU increased 15% to GHS98.

The combination of growing subscriber volumes and higher spending per user provides a strong foundation for sustained earnings growth.

Outlook

MTN Ghana’s Q2 2026 performance reinforces our conviction in the stock. Strong execution in data and Mobile Money, continued subscriber growth, expanding profitability, and disciplined cost management continue to support a compelling long-term investment case.

With earnings consistently outperforming expectations and growth catalysts firmly intact, we maintain our BUY recommendation and upgrade our 12-month target price to GHS11.44 per share.