Ghana H1 2026 Mid-Year Fiscal Review: Key Highlights and Economic Performance

Economic and Fixed Income Update, Market Outlook

The Government of Ghana presented its Mid-Year Fiscal Policy Review to Parliament on July 23, 2026, revealing that performance for the first half of the year remains broadly ahead of plan. Notably, no supplementary estimate was requested, approved 2026 appropriations remain unchanged, and selected expenditures were successfully realigned within the existing budget.

H1 2026 Macroeconomic and Market Indicators

  • Real GDP Growth (Q1): Reached 6.4% versus the ≥ 4.8% full-year target.
  • Non-Oil GDP Growth (Q1): Stood at 6.3% versus the ≥ 4.9% full-year target.
  • Inflation (June 2026): Recorded at 5.3%, coming in below the 8% ± 200bps band.
  • Primary Surplus (H1): Hit 0.9% of GDP, remaining firmly on track for the 1.5% full-year target.
  • Import Cover (June 2026): Reached 5.0 months, comfortably exceeding the ≥ 3.0-month target.
  • Debt-to-GDP (June 2026): Positioned at 45.0%, sitting at the statutory ceiling ahead of the 2034 deadline.
  • Rates Repricing & Savings: The Policy Rate (MPR) stands at 14% (-400bps since December 2025 and down from 27% in January 2025); the 91-day T-bill is at 5.73% (-536bps YTD); Eurobond yields are approximately 300bps lower YTD; 2-year government bond yields range from 11.0% to 12.6%; generating GH¢4.2bn in domestic interest savings in H1.

Notable Policy Measures & Announcements

  • No Supplementary Estimate: 2026 appropriations remain unchanged, with GH¢976m reallocated toward flood response and the acquisition of high-occupancy buses.
  • ECF Exit Pending Board Approval: The final staff-level review has been completed, with Board approval anticipated by the end of July alongside a requested 36-month non-financing Policy Coordination Instrument (PCI).
  • Sinking Fund Build-Up: GH¢15.6bn had accumulated in the Sinking Fund Cedi Account by July 22, with a GH¢30bn end-2026 target intended to cover the February 2027 DDEP maturity.
  • Customs and Excise Reforms: Bills laid before Parliament introduce tighter warehousing limits, electronic monitoring of bonded warehouses, first-port collection of transit duties, and a hybrid excise featuring track-and-trace for wines and spirits.
  • Capital Spending Reprioritisation: GH¢5bn was allocated to GANRAP, while foreign-financed capital expenditure (capex) was reduced by GH¢3bn and GoG-funded Big Push capex by GH¢2bn, keeping total expenditure unchanged.
  • Long-Term Cedi Issuance Resumes: The government raised GH¢2.7bn through its first seven-year cedi bond since the default and issued a GH¢5bn recapitalisation bond to the Bank of Ghana, with annual provisions expected to continue until equity is restored.

Preliminary Expert Commentary & H2 Outlook

  • Positive Fiscal Performance: H1 performance is viewed as broadly positive, though it was driven primarily by lower-than-planned spending rather than stronger revenue generation.
  • Key H2 Risks: Main risks include a potential spending catch-up that could weaken the surplus, continued under-execution that may delay program delivery, and limited visibility on funding the remaining 2027–2028 DDEP maturities.
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