Ghana’s Inflation Eases to 4.6% in July 2026, But August Base Effects Could Trigger a Rebound

Ghana’s disinflation trend resumed in July 2026, with headline inflation easing to 4.6% year-on-year, down from 5.3% in June, bringing an end to three consecutive months of increases. The latest data largely aligns with expectations that inflationary pressures would moderate after the temporary uptick recorded in June.

The improvement was broad-based, although the pace of easing remained modest. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose marginally to 271.1, resulting in near-flat monthly inflation of 0.1%. Food and non-alcoholic beverages inflation slowed to 3.1% y/y from 3.9% in June, aided by a 0.1% month-on-month decline in food prices, likely reflecting seasonal harvest-related gains. Non-food inflation also edged lower to 6.1% y/y from 6.3%.

The composition of the July print was equally encouraging. Services inflation, which has remained one of the most persistent sources of domestic price pressure, declined for a second consecutive month to 8.5% y/y from 9.4%. Goods inflation also eased to 3.4% y/y from 3.7%, while remaining broadly unchanged on a monthly basis. Inflation for locally produced items slowed to 5.9% y/y from 6.7%, although it still accounted for nearly 87% of headline inflation, highlighting the continued importance of domestic factors in driving prices. Imported inflation eased further to 2.0% y/y from 2.3%, suggesting that exchange rate pass-through remains contained.

At the divisional level, food remained the largest contributor to headline inflation at 32.4%, followed by housing and utilities (22.8%) and transport (13.6%). Notably, transport inflation declined sharply to 7.5% y/y from 9.1% in June, helping to offset price pressures from housing, utilities, education, and communication services.

In our view, the July inflation print reinforces the argument that June’s increase was largely driven by base effects and transport-related adjustments rather than a renewed demand-driven inflation shock. Monthly inflation remained subdued, food prices recorded a slight decline, and services inflation continued to soften, all pointing to weakening underlying inflation momentum. Lower cereal and fish prices were key drivers of the food disinflation story, with cereal prices falling 2.5% month-on-month and 10.7% year-on-year.

Looking ahead, however, the disinflation story may face a temporary setback. A relatively weak inflation base from August 2025 creates the possibility of a rebound in annual inflation next month. Nonetheless, seasonal harvest effects, improving food supply conditions, and continued macroeconomic stabilisation measures should help limit upward pressure on prices. While August may witness a temporary rise in headline inflation, the broader disinflation trend appears to remain intact.